Driving Dangerously
(GLS staff members have returned from a visit to Beijing and Shanghai in April and early May. This is the first of a number of posts prompted by the trip that will appear over the next month or so.)
According to a new report, China has now surpassed the US as the world’s largest total emitter of greenhouse gasses. (Of course, the US retains the dubious honor of leading the world in per captia emissions.) This raises the question: is it possible for China and the developing world to find a path to sustainable development at a pace necessary to raise hundreds of millions of people out of poverty while reducing greenhouse gas emissions? Given the current development trajectory, there is reason to worry.
One thumbnail measure of how aggressive a country is in combating global warming is how easy it is to cross a city street. This tells you a lot about which mode of transportation is privileged by law and public policy: do non-polluting pedestrians and bicycles have the right-of-way, or do carbon spewing motor vehicles? In China, the answer in cities like Beijing and Shanghai becomes clear as soon as you step onto the street on the walk signal: cars, trucks, and buses, utilizing the right on red rule, regularly honk and push through the throngs of people on the cross walks. Pedestrians and bicyclists beware.
China has plunged headlong into the automobile culture and on China’s roads, the car is now king. Gone are the massed pelotons of workers riding bicycles home at rush hour, replaced now by traffic jams of cars, taxis, and buses and (on a more positive note) subway cars loaded to “crush” capacity. While bike lanes are still a fixture on Chinese roads, and many in Beijing and Shanghai still ride bikes or electric mopeds, one now has to travel to European cities like Copenhagen and Amsterdam to find genuinely bicycle friendly big cities.
While Beijing and Shanghai both have clean and efficient subway systems that would be the envy of any city, they are hopelessly overburdened and do not yet provide adequate coverage in these rapidly sprawling cities. New public transport is desperately needed and some is on the way.
But, China has massively invested in the internal combustion engine. It has built a world class road and highway system in much of the country. Automobile production is growing by double digits every year: according the Beijing Review, production in the first quarter of this year was up 20% and by 24% in March. Each day 1300 new cars join the 3.35 million vehicles already on Beijing’s roads.
